How Eurocrises work
Reading much of the commentary on global government bond markets reveals that the Eurozone is still misunderstood. We have been here before. And, sadly, nothing has really changed. This post from 12 June 2022 i...
The Dalio fallacy – explaining bond markets
The bear market in bonds is a trend, with three fundamental causes
The most under-appreciated feature of the current bear market in bonds is also the most obvious one. Trend. That trend drives asset pric...
Euro crisis II
Euro crisis II has started. The good news is that we have been here before, so we have learnt some lessons, the bad news is the that the underlying challenge is far greater: Italy - the likely epicentre of th...
EPICs v taxes
EPIC debates: a reply to The Economist’s Free Exchange (more…)...
Pandemania
When will the GameStop?
It is worth reflecting on the first major panic on the New York Stock Exchange in 1901. On that occasion two magnates, James Hill and Edward Harriman, one supported by Standard Oil, the ...
Marx has the last laugh
I cannot think of a better interlocutor than Chris Dilow. He raises another set of interesting questions in his reply to my reply. I am in danger of completely forgetting our original divergence of thought, but...
How long secular stability?
Economics is a curious field of study. For a subject that focuses so much on rational behaviour it is distinctly human. The tribalism borders on parody - post-keynesians, new keynesians, liberal, conservative, ...
Reply to Larry Summers
An ‘Either-Or’ approach to fiscal and monetary policy is mistaken
Larry Summers has delivered a pointed and sweeping critique of the prevailing consensus among central bankers. He rightly asserts that relian...
Stock prices & r*
Economists pay insufficient attention to asset prices. Ask most economists what the relevance of the bond equity correlation is for fiscal policy and they will be baffled. You’ll be lucky if they know what you’...
Draghi’s law of conditional safety
Understanding the Eurozone
The fundamental macroeconomic policy challenge faced by the Eurozone is how to have a risk free asset - which is essential to the functioning of a modern financial system - while sim...