Secular stability
The defining characteristic of US economic data since the financial crisis is not stagnation, but stability. We all look back on the Great Moderation with incredulity at the hubris of economists. But has realit...
When big data is worse than a sample of none
Michael Mauboussin uses a very simple exercise to illustrate how difficult it is to statistically distinguish skill from luck. Investors are often deemed geniuses or fools based on small samples. Think of those...
The economics of partying too hard
What is the difference between work and leisure? A distinction based on paid and unpaid activities is incomplete. A better distinction is between activities we want do and those we don’t enjoy. But this is also...
Why do asset prices move?
Discussions of volatility tend to reveal eccentric views of asset price determination. 'Uncertainty' is deemed to increase and decrease with remarkable frequency. This is particularly odd given that what we don...
The case for a new economics
What’s really wrong with NAIRU
Earlier this year, Matthew Klein at FT’s Alphaville, made a typically punchy and well-argued case for abandoning a cornerstone of the current macro policy framework - the NAIRU...
Has the Bank of Japan solved the ‘Piketty problem’?
Japan’s unlikely re-distribution
Why is the Bank of Japan (BoJ) trying to raise the rate of inflation? Taking account of its demographic profile, Japan's economic performance has been impressive by developed w...
Renzi’s referendum, Europe’s future
It seems apposite that Matteo Renzi's term as Italian Prime minister should end in this way. This referendum was a surreal distraction. Italy does not need faster political decision-making. Good decisions alway...
Blogoff – The Curse of Cash
Rogoff's law - the opposite is usually true
Punning on Kenneth Rogoff's surname is proving irresistible. He has just launched a new economics blog, which should prove rich in thought-provoking missives. Conf...
Where next? Monetary policy in a post policy-rate world
Three new bazookas
Recent shifts in policy direction by global central banks may prove to be profound. The Bank of Japan and the ECB appear to be conceding that further bond purchases and lower policy rates ar...
The Bank of Japan is testing Romer’s hypothesis
Has the last thirty years of macroeconomics been a waste of time?
World Bank chief economist, Paul Romer, has again written a very important critique of modern macroeconomics – or more specifically the academi...